E44 - Financial Markets and the MacroeconomyReturn

In this article I have analysed the long-term relationship between US M2 money supply and the price of gold per troy ounce using Engle-Granger cointegration. The analysis shows the existence of long-term price dependency of gold in relation to US M2 money supply. M2 was used in two variants, seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted. No relevant difference was observed between them. A period spanning 53 years, from 1970 to 2023, was analysed. An EC model using monthly observations indicates very weak correlation between the change of M2 and the subsequent change of the gold price, so semiannual observations were used instead which proved fully conclusive. This, together with results from the long-term model, confirms long price cycles and fluctuation around its equilibrium price lasting for years, which allows the use of gold as a hedge against increasing M2. This article may prove beneficial in filling the gap as it confirms gold price to be dependent on US M2 on longer time span analysed than previous studies and is fully able to explain gold price analysing dependency of two variables only.

The purpose of this contribution is to evaluate the regulatory measures of the Czech central bank within the context of financial consumer protection aimed at slowing down the growth of the mortgage market by introducing new recommendations to restrict LTV limits and other indicators. Households are taking advantage of the availability of mortgage loans in an environment of economic growth and low unemployment. However, the growth in real estate prices raises fears of an increase in systemic risk caused by the developing gap between the growth of household indebtedness and the growth in real estate prices. The paper recapitulates the main factors of the growth rate of household indebtedness and the extent to which the adopted recommendations are effective.

The objective of this article is to derive a simple dynamic macroeconomic model of an open economy to show how an economy as a dynamic system can work. The proposed model is resulted from the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. Unlike the Mundell-Fleming model, we introduce a continuous dynamic and non-linearity. Non-linearity in our model is represented by a non-linear investment function. The non-linear investment function is introduced as the propensity to invest function, which is assumed to be captured by the logistic function of production. After that, the stability of the model is analysed using Hurwitz stability theorem. The behaviour of our non-linear macroeconomic model of open economy is demonstrated on two numerical examples in which two different sets of parameters are selected to examine the dynamic of the system with emphasis on the impact of export multiplier. The presented examples show that the model is able to generate very complex dynamic.